Factors in US shale balances - Declines vs DUCs
Negatives of declines in Permian vs increases in DUCs
There have been a number of developments in recent months in US shale.
We examine two key factors to see their effect on market data and sentiment - the levels of inventories and the quantity of drilled, uncompleted wells (DUCs).
Increasing decline rates in the Permian could have significant long-term effects on US shale production expectations, while increasing numbers of DUCs in Permian should give bulls pause for thought on meaningful, near-term increases in oil prices.
Korpfjell disappoints in the Barents
One of the most anticipated exploration wells of 2017, Korpfjell, has proven a small non-commercial gas volume in the frontier southeast region of the Barents Sea. The Statoil operated well had been targeting oil in a large structure that was estimated by partner Lundin to be over four times the size of that seen in the giant 1.9 - 3bnbbl Johan Sverdrup field.
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Witan Pacific Investment Trust announces changes to its multi-manager line-up and allocations
Number of managers increased from three to four
Witan Pacific Investment Trust (WPC) has announced it intends to change the line-up of its external multi-managers. It will retain Aberdeen Standard Investments and Matthews International Capital Management, but Gavekal will be replaced by Dalton Investments and Robeco Institutional Asset Management. The new allocations are as follows:
Aberdeen Standard Investments 25% (previously 42%)
Dalton Investments 10%
Matthews International 40% (previously 47%)
Robecco Institutional 25%
Made a discovery? What are the odds of another?
Opening sequences
For exploration, and particularly for frontier exploration, it is useful to know how likely exploration may open up further discoveries in the block. We try to quantify how exploration discoveries may lead to further success - and how these results should affect company valuation
Read more...Earnings momentum remains stable for now
Economic surprise driving EUR v USD but no FX hit to eurozone profits estimates
It may be the perfect environment for passive strategies as the lack of catalysts during 2017 has led to a continuation of the low volatility yet highly-valued equity market regime. In particular, it has been a robust year for corporate profitability. 2017 earnings growth forecasts remain pinned around 10%. Even while the medium-term outlook for markets looks challenging on valuation grounds as extraordinary monetary stimulus is unwound, those looking for a significant correction in the short-term should beware as corporate earnings trends remain robust at present.
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North Korea: A problem not of Trump’s making
Missile development program slowly shifts the political balance
North Korea’s recent successful test of a missile capable of reaching much of the US mainland is clearly a concern but it is not because such an attack is imminent or likely. The history of military rocket development suggests that it will still be some years before North Korea could be assured of a successful, let alone multiple, strike on the US or even Guam. However, in the event of any attack, the overwhelming superiority of US forces would undoubtedly ensure the destruction of North Korea. Therefore in many respects Trump’s most aggressive comments this week were a statement of the obvious and investors should accordingly not over-react, even as volatility has risen during thin trading over the holiday season.
Read more...Supply/demand rebalancing some time away
US shales can produce enough to supply demand increases
The oil sector is firmly in a new cycle, with a dramatically lower cost profile across the industry. Inventories in the US remain at elevated levels (only just below last year’s record levels). Although demand growth is steady, the production growth from the US shales alone is seen to be enough to provide for this growth from (Q217-Q218), with OPEC playing a role as the swing producer to cover seasonal variation. The market agrees, and the forward curve has progressively lowered and flattened over the last 18 months. We lower our long-term oil price assumption to $70/bbl in 2022 (equivalent to c $60/bbl real in 2016).
The note is here
Read more...Kosmos searching for more investors
Kosmos coming to London
On 2 August, Kosmos announced that it will be seeking a main-market listing in London during the third quarter in order to access European investors. According to Reuters, the company indicates “There are a number of European investment funds and specialist international oil and gas investors that are currently unable to hold Kosmos’ shares due to their listing outside of a European regulated market”
We also believe it is a function of the differing attitudes the investor bases have towards exploration. Given the multitude of onshore producers, US investors typically place more emphasis on near-term cashflows and production. Especially since the advent of shale fracking, exploration risk is smaller and a greater attention is given to cashflows and financial leverage.
European exchanges tend to see more international explorers focussing on frontier areas, leading to a greater understanding of international exploration and willingness to value it. European exchanges are more used to taking a risked approach to longer term value ideas such as 2P/3P reserves and exploration.
This may explain why European analysts have higher target prices given Kosmos’ mix of production/ development/exploration assets.