FOMC October minutes - No surprise; No reaction
Today’s FOMC minutes indicate a rate increase is clearly on the cards in December; the minutes state that most FOMC participants now believe the conditions for a rate increase “could well be” met by then. The signal could hardly be clearer.
Read more...Paris terror unlikely to be a market event
With more than one hundred people dead and many more injured, last Friday’s terror attacks in Paris rank among the deadliest in the developed world.
Read more...Fed Governors’ speeches - bias to tighten in Dec
The publication of yesterday’s speeches from Fed Governors Bullard, Evans, Fischer and Lacker provided a useful real-time sample of the current thinking at the FOMC. In our view, despite a clearly dovish speech from Charles Evans, the more hawkish tone of October’s FOMC statement was only reinforced. This may have triggered the sell-off in commodities and equities towards the end of the day and reinforces our view that the Fed is not bluffing on a rate increase in December, absent a major market decline.
Read more...Fed flip, market flops?
In recent months investors could be forgiven for sitting on their hands. By clearly telegraphing a rate increase in Q3 15, US Fed policymakers predictably added to upward pressure on the US dollar and created the conditions for capital flight out of China and other emerging markets.
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