Edison Investment Research

China launches its first indigenous aircraft carrier

A show of force which will force the West to take notice

China celebrated the launch of its first domestically built aircraft carrier yesterday (Wednesday 26th April). Known as Type 001A, the ship is as yet unnamed and is the largest ever warship to be built by China. The televised launch comes at a time when tensions are running high in the region’s waters after the US deployed warships and a submarine to the Korean peninsula.

China to build UAVs in Saudi Arabia

UK’s biggest defence export market looks east

Saudi Arabia has signed a strategic partnership with the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC) in order to establish the manufacturing of Chinese Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) in Saudi Arabia. This announcement is significant for two reasons; first it shows that Chinese defence companies are now competing with their western peers, and second it will challenge the UK Government to become comfortable with Chinese made military hardware operating alongside UK built military aircraft.

US budget battles

End of 2017 Continuing Resolution looks likely as focus turns to Trump’s first budget

We are firmly in budget season. On this side of the pond Mr Hammond had his moment in the spotlight, but I was watching the news from the US because a few hours later the US House of Representatives approved the $584bn 2017 Defense Spending bill. This sets in motion the process to end the current Continuing Resolution (CR) that is only established until 28 April. The previous day, President Trump outlined his intent to spend $54bn (+3%) more than the Obama administration had planned to on defence in 2018. So what do we know so far and what can we expect?

Boeing comes to Sheffield

The US aerospace giant is spreading its wings into Europe

Last week, Boeing announced it would be opening its first ever manufacturing facility in Europe. Where will it be I hear you ask? Sheffield. I imagine that isn’t what you were expecting. I certainly wasn’t. The decision is significant for two reasons; what it says about Boeing’s relationship with Europe, and what it says about UK industrial capability.

Court room dramas

Embraer & Brazil vs. Bombardier & Canada – round 2

Embraer and the Brazilian Government vs. Bombardier and the Canadian Government looks set to be the next aerospace courtroom drama. This follows hot on the heels of the aerospace giants Airbus and Boeing slogging it out in the courts over government’s providing financial support for new aircraft programmes, known commonly as ‘Launchaid’ (see Andy’s December blog). 2017 will see the aerospace minnow’s take to the stand in a replay of their previous drama, as Embraer has again complained to the World Trade Organisation about Canada’s support of Bombardier.

Russian Roulette

General Flynn resigns as US National Security Advisor over links to Russia

In my blog last December I described President Trump’s new security team of General Flynn and General Mattis as a ‘fiery and intriguing cocktail’. After less than a month in office, Gen Flynn has indeed set the sparks flying over his liaisons with Russian officials, and on Monday evening handed in his resignation. So what happened and where does this leave President Trump’s foreign policy now?

2017…the year of the rooster, Trump and flying cars

What does the year have in store for Aerospace & Defence stocks?

The Aerospace & Defence sector has two distinct sides to it, with civil aerospace and defence often proffering very different investment narratives. Historically, terrorism and political instability have tended to cause the two sides of the sector to diverge, with defence valuations surging and civil valuations falling. This happened most notably after 9/11 in 2001. At the end of 2016 though, a year defined by terror attacks and political turmoil, the situation was quite different. Defence stocks were the stand out performers during last year, driven initially by the fact global defence spending is now growing, having been in decline from 2011 – 2015, and more latterly by Donald Trump’s US election victory. However, civil stocks have also performed well. Although there have been a high number of terror attacks during 2016, improved airport security measures have forced terrorists to seek new targets and so aerospace stocks have been largely unaffected, and in fact have continued to benefit from the structural growth of passengers numbers which continues to drive output growth. So what does 2017 have in store for aerospace and defence?

It pays to be civil in the long run

Backlog execution should enable improved investor returns

By the end of September, Boeing and Airbus had surpassed an aggregate of 1,000 aircraft deliveries as previously announced product introductions and rate increases continue to drive up demand across the aerospace supply chain. By the year end the two companies are expected to deliver an aggregate of around 1425 aircraft, slightly higher than in 2015.

Are airlines weathering the impact of Brexit and terrorism?

Passenger traffic growth analysis

In my 27 July blog ‘The Summer of Hate’ I espoused that summer 2016 could be a defining moment for the aerospace industry. I questioned whether the new wave of terrorism on mainland Europe would lower our propensity to travel by air and therefore encourage more people to holiday closer to home. The IATA passenger data is now in for July so what does it show?

What does the future hold for NATO?

Trump and Corbyn refuse to support Article 5

9/11 was the first time that NATO’s article five – an attack on one member state is an attack all – had been invoked. It sent a powerful message about the strength of the alliance. Every member of NATO, no matter how small, provided assistance to the United States during the campaign in Afghanistan.  Fifteen years on and the alliance is arguably in its weakest position since its formation in 1949. Politicians in six major member nations have questioned the point of NATO and only five of the twenty-eight states spent the guideline 2% of GDP on defence. Could this be ‘make or break’ for NATO? And if so what could this mean for the defence industry?

Common sense in UK defence?

The UK MOD is to buy its new fleet of Apaches directly from Boeing

In my blog last week I highlighted the calamitous processes, and often illogical decisions that characterise defence procurement. However, the announcement during the Farnborough Air Show that the MOD will buy 50 AH-64E Apache Guardian helicopters from Boeing may well be turn out to be one of the Ministry of Defence’s (MOD) most sensible decisions yet.

Lockheed Martin names and shames the US DoD

Funding for the F-35 is "insufficient"

Lockheed Martin depends on the US Department of Defense (DoD) for c.80% of its revenues. Therefore for Lockheed Martin’s CEO Marillyn Hewson to name and shame the DoD as having overdue bills at Q2 results last week is not a decision she would have taken lightly. It caused me to wonder, what was Hewson trying to achieve?

What do amazon drones and BMX bikes have in common?

How civilian technologies are leading the defence industry

What do Amazon drones and BMX bikes have in common? The answer – the use of cutting edge ‘sense and avoidance’ technology, developed by the civil aerospace industry. Traditionally in the A&D sector, pioneering technologies were developed by the defence industry (funded at least in part by Government customers) and then used in the civil aerospace industry. However, as Governments looks to rein their spending, companies are developing new technologies for civil applications, which will then in time be used in the military sphere. The use of ‘sense and avoid’ technology by Amazon to step up its drone tests, and by British BMX cyclists in preparation for next week’s Olympics are timely examples of this.

The summer of hate

The impact of terrorism on the Aerospace & Defence sector

An article in the press today described the summer of 2016 as the “summer of hate”.  The relentless pace of the attacks has invoked terror into the minds of ordinary people and politicians have been forced to make frequent declarations of their determination to protect their citizens.  It therefore seems logical to me that the summer of 2016 will be one which shapes the near term future for Aerospace and Defence companies.

Trumping Clinton on defence spending

A look at the potential impact of Donald Trump as President on US defence spending

“I’m gonna build a military that’s gonna be much stronger than it is right now. It’s gonna be so strong, nobody’s gonna mess with us. But you know what? We can do it for a lot less.” (Donald Trump)

Donald Trump is somewhat of an enigma when it comes to his military strategy. On the one hand he seems to have the US defence primes in his crosshairs. He frequently criticises politicians and defence contractors for colluding to build costly and unnecessary weapons systems, and he is determined to reduce the procurement budget. On the other hand he has spoken of wanting to increase troop numbers, buy new equipment and bolster the US military presence around the globe, particularly in the Middle East and China.