WWDC 2017 - Catch-up gems
Mostly catch-up but studded with a few gems
While Apple spent most its time catching up with innovations made by other ecosystems, there were a few areas where its announcements put it ahead of the pack. The valuation case in Apple is not nearly as strong as it was 6 months ago leaving us still preferring Microsoft, Baidu and Tencent.
Machine Learning
Apple is weaving machine learning into all of its services. This, combined with increasing integration of Apple’s own apps and services, promises to enhance the user experience and includes new predictive faces (like Google Now) on the Apple Watch and photo recognition and organisation and smart responses predicted from the user’s history in other apps. The demos were slick and effective but how well this will work in the field and with a user that does not use all of Apple’s Digital Life services remains to be seen. Overall, Apple is working hard on AI but I think it still remains way behind Google, Baidu, Yandex and even Microsoft.
iOS 11
For the iPhone, iOS11 is an incremental update but one that focuses most attention on iMessage and the App Store. Apple, is following Tencent in allowing users to do more and more with iMessage including the enablement of peer to peer payments using Apple Pay however iMessage and Photos are the only two services that really got some attention this year leading me to think that these are the two areas where Apple is really trying to create stickiness. This is particularly relevant as I observed yesterday that leaving iOS for Android was particularly easy as I don’t use iMessage.
The network effect can be particularly strong leading me to think that iMessage is now one of the most important services that Apple has - it is much more important than photos as Google Photos is just as good and makes it easy to move photos off iOS. The App Store update aims to address the problem created by its own success which is that discovery of new apps and services is now pretty difficult. New tabs aimed that highlight the new and cool stuff as well as give tips on existing apps is curated through the user’s history and aims to drive more purchases. The aim is clearly to further distance itself from the humdrum experience of Google Play. App Store is an area where Apple is extending its lead.
iOS 11 for iPad
It was for the iPad that the new iOS software really shines. In conjunction with a solid update to the line, iOS 11 enables new functionality that takes the iPad even closer to the laptop. The iPad now has a file system which combined with enhancements to multitasking and window management take its usefulness to a new level. This includes the ability to drag and drop links, pictures and files from one place to another and to share them in multiple ways more easily. This takes the iPad (particularly the pro) closer to a laptop in terms of functionality but it does still fall short. Without support for a mouse and full fat office, the iPad cannot replace a laptop for most content creators although it is getting closer all the time.
Hardware
In addition to the iPad Pro, the iMac and MacBook Pro all received incremental updates that keeps them in line with the high end of the PC market. Apple also launched a super high end iMac Pro all in one aimed at the professional who needs to spend more than $5000 on a computer.
HomePod
Apple also gave a sneak peak of a home speaker that aims to replace expensive WiFi Speakers but also has the functionality of Amazon Echo and Google Home. This is a high-end speaker that sports features that are designed to produce excellent sound quality and functionality potentially rendering Sonos obsolete. At the same time the HomePod has Siri embedded meaning that it can answer questions and control the smart home through HomeKit. Apple has positioned this as something that the user buys for a high-quality audio experience with Siri coming as an added bonus. This is a smart move because Siri is not that bright and is easily out performed by Google Assistant while being on a par with Amazon’s Alexa. HomePod shows no sign of being open to developers other than through HomeKit and I was disappointed that Spotify and other music services have not been enabled on the device. Hence, this a device for the Apple Music subscribers of which there are now 27m and not really for anyone else.
The net result is that while I think there are some very interesting moves being made around the productivity elements on the iPad, Apple is mostly keeping step with the competition. The good news is that its edge as the best distributor of apps and services of third partied has yet to be matched by Google, giving it time to re-invent its hardware differentiation. The valuation case in Apple is not nearly as strong as it was 6 months ago leaving me still preferring Microsoft, Baidu and Tencent.
Disclaimer - Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. This document may contain materials from third parties, which are supplied by companies that are not affiliated with Edison Investment Research. Edison Investment Research has not been involved in the preparation, adoption or editing of such third-party materials and does not explicitly or implicitly endorse or approve such content. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date of publication and is subject to change without notice. While based on sources believed reliable, we do not represent this material as accurate or complete. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Edison Investment Research does not engage in investment banking, market making or asset management activities of any securities. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence or objectivity of investment research.